Hickory Grove traffic analysis: grotesque miscalculation of data

Despite over a year of work by County and applicant to get the Hickory Grove MX/B-2 rezoning application palatable, the case returns for a public hearing (after a 30-day deferral) before the Planning Commission Thursday, October 15, 7:00 p.m. in the County Administration boardroom.

The 51-acre tract at the intersection of Rte 54 and Providence Church Road east of Ashland is an unacceptable site for the massive Mixed Use/B-2 project of 100 townhomes and approximately 79,000 square feet of commercial space. Massive traffic increase on an under capacity Rte 54, increased noise, light pollution and a destroyed scenic rural view will be the fallout of this proposed development.

The traffic increase alone is a huge problem. Hickory Grove will add more than 7120 daily vehicle trips to an under capacity Rte 54. Moreover, the Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) being put forth by County and applicant grossly miscalculates the daily vehicle trips by failing to include East Ashland (approved in 2010, yet unbuilt), which would contribute more than 33,000 daily vehicle trips. Per VDOT guidelines, approved unbuilt development needs to be factored in on traffic counts.

Under capacity and underfunded roads paint a grim picture. The County needs good data upon which to calculate applicant’s road cash proffers. The data is currently flawed.

For a detailed analysis, see Bob Nelson’s most recent analysis.

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